大公网510日讯(记者谭笑)即将召开的一带一路国际合作高峰论坛备受世界瞩目。自中国提出以来,一带一路倡议得到了包括联合国大会在内的国际社会的普遍认同。俄罗斯文明对话研究所创始主席、俄罗斯铁路前总裁弗拉基米尔·亚库宁在接受本报独家专访时表示,即便面临着大国间的竞争,一带一路这一宏伟构想,令中国的朋友圈在不断扩大,让中国以自由贸易捍卫者的身份,带头抵制当前国际社会的贸易壁垒潮流,并将引领参与其中的国家实现包容性的发展。

Takungpao.Com  May 10 (Correspondent Tan Xiao) The Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, which is about to be convened, attracts worldwide attention. Since being proposed by China, the “Belt and Road” initiative has received universal recognition from the international community, including the United Nations General Assembly. Vladimir Yakunin, founding President of WPF Dialogue of Civilizations, former President of Russian Railways, said in an exclusive interview with the newspaper that even confronted with the competition between big powers, the grand idea of the Belt and Roadenables China to continuously expand its friends circle, so that China, as a free trade defender, takes the lead in resisting the current international trade barriers and will also lead the participating countries to achieve inclusive development.

  一带一路倡议被外界看作中国参与全球事务、寻求优先产能合作的一项重要举措。在亚库宁看来,中国非常巧妙地以一带一路倡议的方式,充分融合了各个国家的多样动机,实现一个独特且雄心勃勃的目标”——为中国经济增长寻求新的刺激点,保护全球贸易自由,在带动世界发展的同时增加中国的国际话语权,打破全球单极或一超多强的世界格局。 

“Belt and Road” initiative is seen by the outside world as an important measure for China to participate in global affairs and seek prioritized capacity cooperation. In Yakunin’s view, China is very tactful with the “Belt and Road” initiative, which fully integrates diverse motives of various countries to achieve a “unique and ambitious goal” – seek new stimulus for China’s economic growth, protect global free trade, increase China’s international discourse right while promoting the development of the world at the same time, break the global unipolar or “one super power multiple great powers” world pattern.

  经济增长让中国站出来 

Economic Growth Enable China to Stand Up

  事实上,中国渴望在全球扮演一个更大的角色,这本身就是这个国家在经历不到两代人的积累、经济体量快速且大幅增长的一个自然结果。” 

  亚库宁说道。 

“In fact, China is eager to play a bigger role in the world, which in itself is a natural result of the rapid and substantial growth of the economy with the accumulation by less than two generations,” said Yakunin.

  在世界范围内,中国已取代日本成为第二大经济体,而在其周边地区,中国则是第一大经济体。综合国力的大幅提升也让大多数人相信,未来中国会成为世界第一大经济体。亚库宁认为,伴随经济的增长,中国不断强大的影响力将会对各国制定政策产生重要的影响,这其中就包括了美国在经贸方面针对中国的一些举措。 

In the world, China has replaced Japan as the second largest economy, and in its surrounding areas, China is the largest economy. Remarkable elevation of comprehensive national strength also let most people believe that in the future China will become the world’s largest economy. Yakunin believes that with the economic growth, China’s strong influence, which continues to amplify, will have significant impact on policy-setting in various countries, which encompasses measures taken by the US towards China in aspects of business and trade.

  亚库宁指出,中国的经济神话完全依赖于世界范围内经贸和边境的开放。难怪,在美国大力制定关税和其他贸易壁垒政策时,习近平主席以自由贸易倡议者的身份站出来。” 

Yakunin pointed out that China’s economic “myth” is entirely dependent on the world’s free trade and open borders. “No wonder, when the United States was  vigorously developing and formulating policies regarding tariffs and other trade barriers, President Xi Jinping steps forward as a free trade advocate.

  然而,在一带一路的大战略中,即便面临着中美、美俄之间的大国竞争,中国的朋友圈还是在不断扩大:亚库宁认为,整个欧亚大陆,包括欧洲、俄罗斯和中亚,将会坚定地以供应者和消费者的身份加入到中国这个巨大的工业机器中。 

However, in the grand strategy of “Belt and Road” initiative, even when being faced with big country competition between US and China, US and Russia, China’s friends circle is still expanding: Yakunin’s view is that the Eurasian continent, including Europe, Russia and Central Asia, will be joining China, this huge industrial machinery, in a steadfast manner, bearing the identities of suppliers and consumers. 

  海外基建让中国忙碌 

Overseas Infrastructure Construction Make China busy

  亚库宁认为,当前在基础设施建设方面,中国拥有庞大的劳动力,而本土的机场、高速公路、铁路等基础设施已高度发达,将过剩的生产力转化为GDP是中国推行一带一路的目标之一。 

Yakunin believes that currently in respect of infrastructure construction, China has a huge labor force, and the local airports, highways, railways and other infrastructure have reached highly developed level and transforming the excessive productivity into GDP is one of China’s “Belt and Road” goals.

  每年经济增长5个百分点对于中国而言是必需的,但当前中国的消费增长并不如预期。而国外的基建项目为中国提供了完美的出口——由中国的工程师设计、中国的工人建设,无疑是中国绝佳的选择。” 

“The annual economic growth of 5% is necessary for China, but the current consumption growth in China is not as expected. The foreign infrastructure projects provide a perfect exit – designed by Chinese engineers, constructed by Chinese workers, definitely a great choice for China.”

  中国不做假好人

China Does Not Do “Fake Good”

  历史告诉我们,政治野心与经济增长结合的需求会构成一个激烈的反应——至少在帝国时代的欧洲,那很有可能成为战争的导火索。但是在中国身上则完全不同。” 

“History tells us that the need for combination of political ambitions and economic growth solicits violent reaction – at least in Europe in the imperial era, that is likely to be the fuse of war. But it is completely different in China’s case.

  亚库宁认为,中国是一个具有悠久文明的国家,历史上,中国的政治在很大程度上是自给自足的。不同于基督教和后来的启蒙运动后的欧洲,中国从未把自己当成一个传道士,以假好人的方式以救赎人类视为己任。 

Yakunin maintains that China is a country with a long history of civilization. In history, China’s politics is largely “self-sufficient”. Unlike Christian Europe and Europe post Enlightenment Movement, China has never regarded itself as a “preacher”, who takes “the salvation of human race” as his own responsibility in a “false good” fashion.

  可以说,一带一路展开了一幅宏伟的蓝图,对于人类历史和世界发展的进程而言,可以帮助所有参与实施的国家包容性的发展,同时避免带来更多的冲突。亚库宁说。 

“It can be said that ‘Belt and Roadunfolds a magnificent blueprint. In light of human history and the world’s development course, it can help all of those who are engaged in the implementation of this initiative to accomplish inclusive development, while averting the occurrence of more conflicts.” Yakunin said. 

  处理地缘政治游刃有余 

Tackling Geopolitics with Ease

  近年来,随着经济实力的提高,中国在国际社会的话语权也在不断提升。一带一路倡议的提出,也让世界见证了中国积极参与国际事务的决心。亚库宁认为,中国在处理错综复杂的地缘政治问题时愈发游刃有余,这些经验将助力于中国推动一带一路倡议在沿线国家的落地,并通过该倡议的实施打开全球化时代下新的世界格局。 

In recent years, with the improvement of economic strength, China’s discourse right in the international community is also uplifting. The proposal of“Belt and Road” initiative also led the world to witness China’s determination to actively participate in international affairs. Yakunin argues that China is increasingly capable of dealing with intricate geopolitical issues, the experiences of which will help China to push forward the landing of the “Belt and Road” initiative in countries along the way and facilitate the formation of a new world pattern in the era of globalization  through the implementation of this initiative.

  在不同的事情上,中国在参与全球事务中向来以不同的方式、方法和风格扮演不同的角色。亚库宁以近期在南海区域的对峙为例指出,当前中国在处理其最大的挑战之一——中美关系时,其把控能力显得更加成熟。 

“In different situations, China has always played different roles in different ways and styles, using different methods in its participation in global affairs.” Yakunin illustrated, taking the recent confrontation in the South China Sea region as an example, that China is currently addressing Sino-US relations, one of its biggest challenges, with apparently more mature control.

  大国竞争加剧 

Big Country Competition Intensified

  中国社科院最新发布的《中国周边安全形势评估(2017)》中指出,当前大国关系出现了伴随美俄、中美的对抗竞争加剧,中俄、美日战略合作加速发展的情况。以中国为代表的新型大国日益崛起,而以美国为代表的守成大国为维护传统霸权,则在政经领域不断分化、拉拢。 

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently issued “Assessment on Security Level in China’s Surrounding Areas (2017)” and pointed out that the current relationship between major powers indicates confrontation and competition between US and Russia, US and China aggravated, while strategic cooperation between China and Russia, US and Japan accelerated. Emerging big countries with China as their representative continues to rise up, while the old major powers with the US as their representative are keen on preserving their traditional hegemony. In political and economic arena, members of the two groups are unceasingly dividing up, forming and fortifying alliances.

  亚库宁指出,在过去20-30年间,中国在政治领域的影响力既慎重又百益无害。如今,随着经济体不断扩大和话语权的增长,新的利益冲突不断出现。与此同时,中美之间存在着经济共生关系,如果这层关系被破坏,则两败俱伤。他认为,中国真正的最终挑战将在美国持续衰败、无法继续担任世界警察时到来。 

Yakunin pointed out that in the past 20 to 30 years, China’s influence in the political field is both prudent and harmless. Nowadays, as the economy continues to expand and its discourse right grows, new conflicts of interest are emerging. At the same time, there exists an economic symbiotic relationship between China and the United States. If this relationship is destroyed, it will harm the interests of both sides. He believes that China’s real ultimate challenge will appear when the United States continues to decline and is unable to serve as the “world police”.

  美式和平或被一带一路打破 

“Pax AmericanaMay Be Broken Up by “Belt and RoadInitiative

  在亚库宁看来,全球化与美国霸权下和平的结合,曾让中国经济获益良多。但伴随中国经济的提升,从全球化和美式和平的双重审视下,很显然,世界将会看到一个不同于以往单极主导的全球发展新模式——一带一路为契机,让中国成为平衡世界格局的杠杆。亚库宁说。 

In Yakunin’s view, the combination of globalization and peace under American hegemony has benefited Chinese economy greatly. “But with the rising of China’s economy, from the dual scrutiny of globalization and ‘Pax Americana’, it is clear that the world will see a new model of global development that is different from the previous unipolar patterngrasping the opportunities brought about by  ‘Belt and Road’ initiative, China will become a leverage which balances the world pattern. ” Yakunin said.

  对于中国可能面临下一个世界霸权陷阱一说,亚库宁则乐观地认为,从中国处理以往国际事务中展现出的态度已表明,中国领导人已具备足够的智慧和能力避免成为下一个霸权国家。 

With regard to the viewpoint that China may face the next “world’s hegemony trap”, Yakunin is optimistic that China’s attitude in dealing with international affairs has shown that Chinese leaders are equipped with sufficient wisdom and capability to refrain from becoming the next hegemonic state.

  尊重各国需求提高跨文化交流 

Respect for Individual Nation’s Needs And Improve Cross – Cultural Communication

  中国开放了,这是一带一路释放的中心思想,并且热情地邀请沿线国家,为共同的利益加入到共同的项目中。亚库宁认为,中国政府展现出的积极态度可能是一带一路总规划中最重要的政治资产。他期待中国能够带领一带一路上的国家相互尊重,促进跨文化交流合作。 

“China has opened up, which is the central idea of ‘Belt and Road’ initiative. China warmly invites the countries along the way to join the common project for common interests.” Yakunin believes that the Chinese government’s positive attitude may be the most important political assets in the overall planning of  “Belt and Road “. He expects China to lead the countries along the “Belt and Road” to respect one another and promote cross-cultural exchanges and cooperation. 

  “‘一带一路的宗旨是打造政治互信、经济融合、文化包容的利益共同体、命运共同体和责任共同体,这就要求参与各方以集体主义价值观认同推动合作。亚库宁认为,各个国家均会衡量参与其中的利弊,平衡其中的机会和成本,因此中国领导人需要理解,各个国家在加入一带一路时都极可能会有所保留,但只要这些国家的敏感问题得到相互尊重,一带一路必将呈现其规划的景象。 

“The mission of the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative is to create a community of common destiny, benefit and responsibility. Within the community, different countries will have political mutual trust, integrated economy and cultural tolerance. This requires participants to recognize collectivism values and promote cooperation.” Yakunin thinks that each and every country will weigh the pros and cons associated with the participation of the program, calculate and balance the opportunities and costs within. Thus the Chinese leaders ought to understand that each country is likely to have some reservations upon joining “Belt and Road”. But as long as the “sensitive issues” in these countries are respected by one another, the ” Belt and Road” will lead to prospects as originally planned.

  带动各国受益 

Lead Other Countries to Benefit from the Initiative

  除了地缘政治、文化差异以外,亚库宁也指出了中国和一带一路沿线国家可能面临的风险——全方位连接陆地和海洋的基础设施建设的时间可能比预期更长,高达二至三万亿美元的投资会是一个巨大的挑战。但他认为,所有临近的国家均会大规模的从这一新的基础设施网络中直接和间接取得经济收益,并将有效帮助社会发展和助推跨文化交流。 

In addition to geopolitical and cultural differences, Yakunin also pinpointed the risks that may be confronting China and countries along the “Belt and Road“- infrastructure projects that connect land and sea in an all-round fashion may take longer time to construct than estimated, and up to two to three trillions of dollars of investment will be a huge challenge. Nevertheless, he believes that all neighboring countries will be obtaining economic benefits in large-scale from this new infrastructure network directly and indirectly, which will also effectively facilitates social development and boost cross-cultural exchanges. 

  中国正坐在这辆快车的驾驶座上,乘车的其他国家会耸耸肩问:谁是最终受益者?很显然,所有人。亚库宁说。 

“China is sitting on the driver’s seat of the express train, and the other countries that ride in the train will shrug their shoulders and ask: who is the ultimate beneficiary? Obviously, everyone,” said Yakunin. 

  俄将一带一路视为己任 

Russia Will take “Belt and Road” Initiative as Its Own Responsibility

  曾担任俄罗斯铁路(Rossiyskie Zheleznye DorogiRZhD)前总裁的亚库宁曾见证了多个一带一路早期基建项目。他表示,一带一路倡议与俄罗斯的发展息息相关,作为连接欧亚大陆的大国,响应这一倡议也是俄罗斯的使命。 

Yakunin, former president of Russian Railways JSC (Rossiyskie Zheleznye Dorogi or RZhD), has witnessed the initiation of a number of early “Belt and Road” infrastructure projects. He said that the “Belt and Road” initiative is closely related to the development of Russia. As a big country connecting Eurasia, responding to this initiative is also the mission of Russia.

  亚库宁曾以俄罗斯商界代表和权威学者的身份,向俄总统普京提出了跨欧亚带开发计划的构想,计划打造一条横贯俄罗斯全境、长达近2万公里的高速公路,以促进俄罗斯经济的发展。而这一构想也在后来被中俄两国领导人视作与一带一路相一致且互补的计划。 

Yakunin, as a Russian business representative and authoritative scholar, proposed to Russian President Vladimir Putin the conception of Trans-Eurasia Belt Development Strategy“, with plans to build a trans-Russia highway system of up to nearly 20,000 kilometers of length to promote the development of Russian economy. And this idea was later regarded by the leaders of China and Russia as a complementary plan that is in line with “Belt and Road”.

  俄罗斯从一开始就是一带一路这一构想的一部分,因为我们是一个欧亚国家,这样的属性使我们几乎等同于一带一路。为什么呢?欧洲与亚洲连接越紧密,欧亚这个概念就更有意义——这是我们的使命。亚库宁说。 

“Russia is an integral part of this ‘Belt and Road’ conception from the very beginning, because we are an Eurasian country, and the very nature of this fact makes us almost equivalent to ‘Belt and Road.Why? The more closely Europe and Asia are connected, the more meaningful this ‘Eurasia’ concept will beIt’s our mission, “says Yakunin.

  基建合作对俄意义重大 

Cooperation in Infrastructure Construction is of Great Significance to Russia

  亚库宁指出,俄罗斯在基建方面参与到一带一路中的原因是显而易见的。可以说,在俄罗斯与中国发展经贸联系方面,俄东部地区铁路网扩容的迫切性不断提高。 

Yakunin pointed out that Russia’s involvement in the infrastructure construction has obvious purposes. It can be said that in the interests of developing Russia-China business and trade ties, capacity expansion of the railway network in eastern part of Russia is of increasing urgency.

  当前俄罗斯北方的全部交通道路、远东地区的跨东北铁路、贯穿哈萨克斯坦与乌拉尔山脉以西的俄罗斯的新东西铁路走廊等,对俄罗斯意义重大。这些交通设施取代了昂贵的越里海黑海轮渡和未来连接伊朗和安纳托利亚半岛(即小亚细亚半岛)铁路线。 

At present, all the roads in the north of Russia, the trans-northeast railway in the Far East, Russia’s new east-west railway corridor which is west of the Kazakh and Ural mountains, etc are of great significance to Russia. These transport facilities have replaced the expensive Caspian Sea – Black Sea ferry and the railway line linking Iran and the Anatolian Peninsula (ie the Asia Minor Peninsula).

  人们坚信,俄中共同发展两国铁路基础设施的工作将继续下去,这也将为不断扩大的双边贸易额和制定合理商业规划奠定可靠基础。同时,俄中铁路的协调发展是积极拓展其他亚欧国家对外经济联系的重要条件,因此俄中合作对于跨欧亚发展带和一带一路的意义不言而喻。亚库宁说。 

“People are convinced that the Russia-China cooperation in the development of railway infrastructure between the two countries will proceed, which will also lay a solid foundation for expanding bilateral trade and the formulation of reasonable business planning, while the coordinated development of the Russia-China railway is the important condition for active development of foreign economic relations in other Asian and European countries. Therefore, the value of Russia-China cooperation towards the Tans-Eurasia Development Belt and ‘Belt and Road’ is quite self-evident. ” Yakunin said.

  配表:一带一路中俄合作成果概要 (谭笑整理

Appendix:  summary on achievements from Sino-Russian cooperation in the implementation of Belt and Road initiative (Compiled by Tan Xiao)

  贸易方面:中国连续六年成为俄罗斯最大贸易伙伴:2016年中俄进出口贸易额为695.25亿美元,同比增长2.2% 

Trade: China has become Russia’s largest trading partner for six consecutive years: Sino-Russian trade in imports and exports in 2016 amounts to USD 69.525 billion, up by 2.2% year-on-year.

  投资方面:2016年中国企业对俄非金融类直接投资140多亿美元,保持俄第四大投资来源国地位。 

Investment: in 2016, non-financial outward direct investment from Chinese enterprises equals to more than USD 14 billion. China maintains the position of Russia’s fourth largest source country of investment.

  能源方面:2016年中国自俄进口原油5248万吨,同比增长23.7%,俄罗斯成为中国原油第一大进口来源国。 

Energy: In 2016, China imported 52.48 million tons of crude oil from Russia, up by 23.7% year on year. Russia became China’s largest source country of crude oil.

  基建方面:截止201611月,中俄共建俄罗斯(莫斯科)中国(北京)欧亚高速运输走廊的重要组成部分——莫斯科喀山段高铁项目已基本完成勘察设计工作。20156月,俄罗斯企业与中国中铁二院组成的联合体,中标全长770km的莫斯科喀山高铁项目,项目造价约为1万亿卢布(约合1084亿人民币),穿越俄罗斯7个地区,预计建成后莫斯科至喀山将只需3个半小时。项目规划2018年完工。 

Infrastructure: up until November 2016, the mapping and design work of Moscow – Kazan section, which is part of a high-speed railway project, have already been completed. This project is an important segment of the joint construction of “Russia (Moscow) – China (Beijing)” Eurasian high-speed transport corridor. In June 2015, the joint venture formed by Russian enterprise and China Railway No. 2 Bureau won the bid of Moscow – Kazan high-speed railway project, the total length of which is 770km. The project costs about 1 trillion rubles (roughly 108.4 billion yuan), and crosses seven regions in Russia. It is estimated that after completion, traveling from Moscow to Kazan will take only 3.5 hours. Project planning  will be finished in 2018.

  未来铁路线路还将继续向东,经过叶卡捷琳堡、哈萨克斯坦首都至中国乌鲁木齐,最终融入中国八纵八横高速铁路网络。 

The future railway lines will continue to expand to the east, crossing Yekaterinburg, and Kazakhstan’s capital city, leading to China’s Urumqi, ultimately integrating into China’s “Eight Verticals and Eight Horizontals” high-speed railway network.

人物介绍:

Character Introduction: 

  弗拉基米尔·亚库宁(谭笑整理

Vladimir Yakunin (Compiled by Tan Xiao)

  政治学博士,俄罗斯外交部外交学院名誉博士,俄罗斯社会科学院成员,俄罗斯文明对话研究所创始主席、莫斯科国立大学国家治理系主任,俄罗斯商业领袖,慈善家。 

Doctor of Political Sciences, Honorary Doctor of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Member of the Russian Academy of Social Sciences, Founding President of WPF Dialogue of Civilizations, Head of the Department for State Governance, Moscow State University, Russian business leader and philanthropist.

  亚库宁于1972年毕业于列宁格勒力学研究所,曾在俄罗斯科学院物理技术研究所担任系主任。19851991年期间,历任苏联常驻联合国代表处的第二秘书和第一秘书 

Vladimir Yakunin graduated from the Leningrad Institute of Mechanics in 1972 and served as a department head at the Russian Academy of SciencesIoffe Physical-Technical Institute. In 1985-1991, Vladimir Yakunin was Second and then First Secretary of the USSRs Permanent Representative Office at the United Nations.

  曾担任国际商业合作中心董事会主席,随后被提名为俄罗斯联邦总统高级管制部下属的西北联邦管区检查局局长。于200010月被任命为交通运输部副部长,20022月被任命为铁路部第一副部长。 

Vladimir Yakunin served as Chairman of the Board at the International Centre for Business Cooperation, and was then nominated head of the North-Western Federal District Inspectorate of the Senior Control Department of the President of the Russian Federation. Yakunin was appointed Deputy Minister of Transport in October 2000 and first Deputy Minister of Railways in February 2002.

  200310月,俄罗斯铁路委员会JSC任命亚库宁为第一副总裁。 20056月,晋升为俄罗斯铁路股份公司总裁,直至20158月。 

In October 2003 the Board of Russian Railways JSC appointed Vladimir Yakunin First Vice President. In June 2005 he was promoted to President of Russian Railways JSC, a position he held until August 2015.

  2013年,亚库宁创立了世界公众论坛文明对话基金,旨在支持政治、社会科学、宗教和文化领域的研究,促进国家间政治和经济事务上的沟通,以及在发生社会动乱和国际争端时寻求和解。 

In 2013 Vladimir Yakunin founded the Endowment for the World Public Forum Dialogue of Civilizations aimed at supporting research in the sphere of political and social sciences, religion and culture, developing communication between countries on political and economic matters, and seeking compromise in cases of social unrest and international disputes.